The 2024 NATO Summit in Washington was an illuminating moment, revealing the current situation within the alliance – it revealed both a strong momentum towards further achievements and the persistence of challenges. Examining the outcomes of the summit – the text of the Washington Summit Declaration and the decisions taken – it is clear that NATO's approach to supporting Ukraine and addressing broader strategic issues has been nuanced and complex. Let us look at the summit's key decisions, their implications for Ukraine's path towards Euro-Atlantic integration and the defence of the Baltic States, as well as for the wider geopolitical context.
The summit discussions focused on Ukraine's path towards NATO membership. The Summit communiqué reiterated that Ukraine's future lies in NATO and described its path to NATO membership as "irreversible". This is a major step forward from the commitments made and the language used in previous declarations – and that in itself signals stronger support. However, this pledge – Ukraine's "irreversible" accession to NATO – remains somewhat vague. Despite the strong rhetoric, the statement stresses that an invitation to membership will only be extended once all allies agree and certain conditions are met. This cautious language underlines that the exact timetable and criteria for Ukraine's accession are still unclear.
The use of terms such as 'bridge' and 'irreversible' reveals a commitment to support Ukraine's integration into NATO, yes, but it also raises questions about the length and stability of this imaginary bridge. Although we read a relatively more decisive position in the declaration, the lack of a formal invitation and the restrictions still in force on Ukrainian military operations demonstrate the shortcomings in NATO's support system and the integrity of its approach.
The Washington Summit made a number of concrete commitments to strengthen Ukraine's defence capabilities. In particular, Denmark and the Netherlands committed to supply F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. The timetable and the quantity of fighter jets to be delivered do not, however, meet Ukraine's initial requirements, which points to a certain discrepancy between NATO's intentions and Ukraine's most urgent needs. During the summit, the planned delivery of five new air defence systems to Ukraine was also announced. While this definitely is a positive and necessary move, it will unfortunately not fully address Ukraine's immediate and pressing needs: as the recent Russian attack on the main children's hospital in Kyiv has shown, its arsenal includes low-flying missiles that air defence systems are currently unable to intercept.
An important outcome of the summit was the agreement to provide €40 billion in military aid to Ukraine next year, with NATO members committing to share the burden equitably so that contributions are proportionate to their share of the Alliance's GDP. This support is intended to strengthen Ukraine's defence capabilities and infrastructure. However, the broad scope of this assistance – training, logistics and various other forms of support – means that careful coordination and sustained work will be needed to achieve these objectives and to ensure that the funding is used effectively and has the desired positive impact. Moreover, the broad definition of the aid package allows Member States to include in "aid" various types of assistance such as maintenance, equipment transportation and investments in Ukraine's defence industry, which may reduce the amount of direct military assistance received by Ukraine – the assistance that is most urgently needed.
Although the EUR 40 billion aid package is substantial, it is not enough to be able to talk about the longer-term commitments advocated, for example, by Latvia. The revision of the annual aid levels within the NATO framework will provide some flexibility, but does not guarantee a stable flow of funding and aid in the long term, especially without a clear road map for Ukraine's NATO membership.
The decisions taken at NATO's Washington Summit to strengthen deterrence and defence capabilities are of great importance for the Baltic region. Strengthening air and missile defence, improving command and control and expanding military infrastructure are essential for the defence of the Alliance as a whole.
For Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, the results of this Summit are significant. In Latvia, the Allied presence has been continuous in recent years and we can be particularly grateful for the Canadian initiative to expand the NATO multinational battle group to brigade level. The Summit also underlined the need to strengthen air and missile defence, cyber security and critical infrastructure protection to counter hybrid threats from Russia.
It is important that NATO today recognises Russia as its most serious strategic threat. Accordingly, NATO's commitment to fully implement regional defence plans and improve military mobility is essential to ensure the defence of its Member States. A reinforced presence on NATO's eastern flank and continued investment in defence capabilities demonstrate the Alliance's determination to defend itself and adapt to changing security conditions.
While NATO's Washington Summit focused on supporting Ukraine and improving regional defence, the Indo-Pacific cooperation with NATO did not go unnoticed. This reflects a fundamental shift in thinking, recognising and acknowledging the global nature of security challenges and developments, which require solutions that transcend traditional geographical boundaries.
The inclusion of the Indo-Pacific countries in NATO's broadened strategic perspective includes several key elements. First, diplomatic and military cooperation with key partners in the region must be strengthened. The growing strategic partnership between China and Russia calls for a more coordinated response by NATO and its allies to the multifaceted threats posed by these two global players. This includes strengthening cooperation with regional allies and partners to ensure a united front against any potential threats to stability.
Expanding NATO's engagement in the Indo-Pacific region should focus on enhancing interoperability and joint capabilities. This means not only increasing military interoperability, but also ensuring that defence strategies and technological advances are shared and adapted. By integrating lessons learned from conflicts in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific, NATO can develop a comprehensive approach to global security.
Fostering dialogue with countries and organisations in the Indo-Pacific region can help to align strategic interests and strengthen collective defence efforts. This includes active participation in regional security fora and strengthening partnerships with countries that are critical to the stability of the Indo-Pacific region, possibly moving towards an alliance equivalent to NATO's structure and mission in the region over time. As the region remains crucial to global trade and security, NATO's involvement will be essential to preserve the international order.
The Summit also discussed the growing challenges posed by China and its ambitions in the region. NATO's public reference to China's role as a supporter of Russia's war through a "no-holds-barred" partnership and support for Russia's defence industry marks a significant shift in the Alliance's collective stance. However, a concrete set of measures to reduce China's influence is still lacking.
NATO's Washington Summit decided on a number of important initiatives aimed at strengthening the Alliance's strategic posture and support for Ukraine. The establishment of the NATO Security Assistance and Training Command in Wiesbaden, Germany, is intended to provide coordinated support and training to Ukraine and its armed forces. The transfer of command responsibilities from the US to NATO indicates an effort to provide enhanced and predictable support that is more independent of political realities. The appointment of a new permanent NATO envoy in Kyiv signals NATO's long-term strategic engagement in the region and will, in purely practical terms, lead to closer coordination.
The Alliance's taking over much of the work of the US-led Ukraine Defence Contact Group - also known as the Ramstein Group - was agreed more than a month ago. The name of this new body originally included the word "mission" to accurately reflect its tasks and work - that is, the NATO mission in Ukraine. However, according to various sources, Germany objected to the use of the word 'mission', arguing that it could be perceived [by Russia] as a hint that NATO would send its troops to Ukraine, thus creating the risk of escalation. Since NATO as an organisation bases its decisions on consensus, a compromise was found and the word "mission" was dropped from the title.
The Joint Analytical Training and Education Centre is expected to play a crucial role in improving Ukraine's interoperability with NATO forces. By focusing on lessons learned from the current conflict, the Centre aims to improve the tactical and strategic capabilities of Ukrainian forces. It will serve as a critical feedback mechanism to enable NATO and Ukraine to adapt effectively to changing military challenges. The Centre also has the broader objective of ensuring the integration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into NATO standards and practices.
NATO's 2024 Washington Summit confirmed the Alliance's commitment to support Ukraine and strengthen its defence posture against Russian aggression. While significant progress was made on military assistance and strategic commitments, the Summit also highlighted outstanding issues and challenges. As regards the Baltic region, the decisions and discussions of the Summit signalled even more strongly the need for a regional defence strategy. NATO, as it navigates the complex dynamics of global developments, must strike a balance between unity and strategic foresight, and ensure that the Alliance remains able to adapt to evolving threats while preserving its core principles of collective defence and democratic values. The key is moving forward, each time being better adapted than before. Thus, the expectations for the next summit in Hague are already vast. Here’s to hoping that the Hague will be the place where major things happen next year – not just the NATO summit, maybe also a special tribunal prosecuting those responsible for the crimes Russia commits in Ukraine every day, to this day.
