Following Finland's accession to NATO last year, Sweden has become the 32nd member of NATO on March 8th 2024. This will not only strengthen the US-led transatlantic military alliance system, but also have considerable impact for both the Arctic and the Asia-Pacific region. From a Taiwanese perspective, that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are also involved. It is a typical case in which a single event affects the globe.
Sweden is an industrial manufacturing power, and is located in the Baltic Sea. With Finland and the three small countries of the Baltic Sea in the east, and it has become an inland sea of NATO, which has formed a considerable obstacle for Russia to enter and exit the Baltic Sea.
With 15% and 33% of Sweden’s and Finland's territory respectively located in the Arctic Circle, plus the United States, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Iceland, a total of seven NATO countries will face off against Russia in the "Arctic Council". Founded in 1996 as a forum for cooperation among governments of Arctic countries, China joined in as an observer in 2013 with the name of the “Near Arctic state”. In 2018 Beijing began to establish the “Ice Silk Road”, another example of cordial cooperation between China and Russia.
In addition, due to the increasing global warming, the ice in the Arctic region is melting at an accelerated rate. Especially in summer, and the shipping lanes are becoming smoother, saving nearly 10 days of freight transportation than the Suez Canal bypass between Asian and European countries. This, combined with the instability in the Middle East, has increased the economic benefits of the Arctic shipping lanes.
Since Sweden's accession to NATO has strengthened the confrontation with Russia, which has also affected the operation of the “Ice Silk Road”. In addition, when the ice melts, it is also much easier to exploit the rich crude oil and natural gas resources in the Arctic, and the combination of Chinese capital and Russian technology complements each other.
On the other hand, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war two years ago, the United States has also urged Japan, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand and Australia to become NATO's "Asia-Pacific Four" (AP4). The leaders of the four countries participated in the NATO summit for the second consecutive year in 2023, and are expected to sign the "Individually Tailored Partner Program" with NATO.
Through exchanges of intelligence and joint military exercises, NATO's forces have entered East Asia and takes China as an imaginary opponent. At the 2022 NATO summit, China was already officially listed as an adversary to the systemic challenge for the first time, and the Indo-Pacific region was included in NATO's special concern.
At present, although NATO has not directly established ties with Taiwan, its secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has repeatedly mentioned “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow”, and NATO summits have repeatedly stated that they want to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. In particular, the United States is behind NATO as well as the Indo-Pacific security mechanism, and Taiwan naturally cannot be exempted from this. Whether this is a blessing or a curse for the development of cross-strait relations needs to be further observed.
Recently, the Kinmen fisherman incident has caused a lot of uproar, which has also aroused the attention of the US side. It is very rare that the White House, the State Department and the Department of Defense of the United States have all expressed their positions in a timely manner. The US side has reiterated their position on maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, opposing any party to undermine the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. Washington urges Beijing to exercise restraint and engage in meaningful dialogue between the two sides of the strait to reduce the risks, which shows the seriousness of the situation.
As a matter of fact, the United States cannot escape the blame for the current cross-strait tensions. Since 2018, when President Trump used various hardline measures against the mainland and also provoked Beijing through various Taiwan friendly bills. The island has become the best chess piece of the United States to encounter China.
President Biden has also intensified, especially after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022. Ever since Beijing's Taiwan strategy has changed from maintaining the status quo to restoring the status quo ante, which means back to the state of 1949. This includes erasing the center line of the Taiwan Strait and the M503 offset, and the recent Kinmen control coastal areas.
Due to the special relationship between Taiwan and China, international rules cannot be applied to many issues, especially the border issue, otherwise it will fall into the dilemma of the two-state problematic. Therefore, it must be handled on the basis of goodwill and mutual trust. For example, the above-mentioned norms such as the middle line of the Taiwan Strait are unilateral decisions made by Taiwan.
In the Cold War period, Beijing acquiesced because of its limited military capability. Later China was unwilling to undermine cross-strait relations, especially during the President Ma Ying-jeou period (2008-2016), e. g. the treatment of M503, which is a manifestation of goodwill.
However, because of the Taiwan independence forces, fueled by the United States, have made Beijing feel that the goal of peaceful reunification with Taiwan is becoming more and more distant. Maintaining of the status quo will indeed be difficult to justify itself. On the other hand, if Beijing does not react, the US side will definitely move on to an outcome that is difficult to contain.
As the Gaza war extended to the Red Sea, Beijing has no reaction to it. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at the Munich Security Conference months ago that the nature of the Red Sea is different from that of the Taiwan Strait, which clearly indicates Beijing's reluctance to intervene. One of the most important reasons is that the United States has not taken sufficient friendly measures on the Taiwan issue vis-à-vis China, which could lead to a positive reaction from Beijing.
To conclude, Sweden’s accession to NATO has emboldened Washington to encounter China. Now the tacit understanding between China and Taiwan is no longer there, and the situation between the two sides could escalate. Taiwan as a card to the US has reached its limit. If Trump wins the election in November Taiwan's role and function for the United States will be tested again. At present, if the DPP government is bound to promote talks with China, it can still avoid a catastrophe. Otherwise even if the United States rushes to help, Taiwan will still be the first to suffer.
