There’s an old Korean saying that, “in a fight between whales, it is the shrimp that gets its back broken.” This simple statement describes well South Korea’s geopolitical position and potential damage sustained from an Asian great power conflict. South Korea is situated at a vital geopolitical crossroads and must consider relations with two major powers active in Northeast Asia, the United States and China. Since the end of the Korean War, Seoul has relied on the United States as its most important ally to counter North Korean threats and maintain peace in the region. However, as China has risen as regional and global power, South Korea has been forced into a strategic dilemma: which of the two is more important to it, and how should it choose? For the past thirty years, South Korea has felt that it must maintain good relations with both powers.
South Korea is one of the world's largest exporters and its economic success has been built on foreign trade. For three decades since ROK-PRC normalization in 1992, bilateral trade has steadily grown. Trade volume between South Korea and China was only $6.4 billion in 1992, but it increased thirty-eight times to $241.5 billion by 2021. China has remained the largest trading partner in both import and export since 2004, accounting for 24.6% of Korea’s total trade in 2020. South Korea emerged as the largest exporter to China in 2013, but in 2021 it ranked as the third largest exporter to China after Japan and Taiwan. South Korea benefits from China as its largest trading partner. South Korea's electronics, automobiles, and steel prosper on the back of Chinese demand. South Korea benefits from China's increasingly affluent, tech-savvy consumer market. By collaborating with Chinese companies, South Korea gains access to new technologies and expertise in artificial intelligence, 5G networks, and renewable energy. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) provides South Korea with opportunities to participate in large-scale infrastructure projects in East and Central Asia and beyond. By maintaining good relations with China, South Korea gets occasional help with its efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and improve relations with the North.
South Korea also gains from strong economic ties with the U.S. America is South Korea's second-largest trading partner and a major market for its exports, including semiconductors, cars, and chemicals. South Korea gains from access to American advanced technology and innovation, thereby remaining competitive in global markets. As America is home to many of the world's leading companies, partnerships with these firms helps South Korean corporations expand their global reach. South Korea can gain from America’s support for free trade, which is essential for its export-driven economy. By working closely with the U.S., South Korea can potentially enhance its security and defense capabilities, and also benefit from American strategic partnerships in the region.
The strategic dilemma facing South Korea became more complicated since the Trump administration, as it pressured Seoul on various issues to choose between Washington and Beijing. In effect, the Trump administration demanded that South Korea bandwagon with the United States and limit economic cooperation with China. Such a policy stance could have significant negative impacts on South Korea's economy, as China has become South Korea's leading trading partner and has gained leverage over South Korea due to economic dependence. China also can play an important role in curbing North Korea’s nuclear development and possibly facilitate Korean reunification. South Korea essentially has a choice of four options. First, South Korea could bandwagon with the United States and sacrifice its economic ties with China. Second, it instead might bandwagon with China and thereby weaken its security alliance with the United States. Third, it can maintain a balance between the two powers and avoid taking sides. Fourth, South Korea could foster its own military power and capabilities, principally by developing nuclear weapons, and so lessen its dependence on the U.S. for security.
Among these options, various South Korean observers have proposed that Seoul should develop its own nuclear weapons, allowing the military to defend the nation by itself. President Yoon mentioned this prospect, i.e., that South Korea might need to develop nuclear forces if U.S. extended deterrence could no longer guarantee the South's safety. This option was advanced by prominent international relations scholar and sometime presidential adviser Moon Chung-in, which he refers to as a “standing alone strategy.” he calls for development of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. South Korea, possessing a robust civilian nuclear power program, probably could develop nuclear weapons fairly quickly.
The potential consequences of South Korea developing nuclear capabilities and deploying strategic and tactical nuclear weapons are multifaceted. Potential advantages may appear obvious. First, it could strengthen overall national defense. Nuclear arms can play vital roles in ensuring national security, as Seoul for the first time would possess a full range of armed forces from special forces to strategic nuclear forces. Second, it might reduce the level of threats emanating from North Korea. North Korean nuclear weapons constitute an immediate threat to the South and could cause mass destruction in minutes but, with both Koreas possessing nuclear weapons, the North would no longer hold a strategic advantage. Third, it could reinforce South Korea’s security independence. Possession of nuclear weapons would give it a defense capability apart from that offered by America.
Disadvantages of nuclearization are equally obvious. First, if the South succeeds in developing nuclear weapons, it could trigger international economic sanctions or downgrading of economic relations. Second is domestic opposition. Currently, the option is popular with the Korean public, with up to seventy percent of those polled supporting it. As the realities of possessing nuclear weapons become clear, this might change and could spark considerable protest within the country, perhaps including the kind of mass candle-light demonstrations that helped topple the Park Geun Hye presidency in 2017. The state would need to strengthen internal security, perhaps causing further unrest. Third is regional instability. Acquisition of nuclear weapons could provoke a regional arms race and thus increase instability in Northeast Asia. It likely would lead to increased tensions with China, which has already expressed concerns about potential nuclear development.
South Korea faces a complex strategic dilemma as it navigates a delicate balance between its traditional ally, the United States, and its increasingly influential economic partner, China. It must carefully consider the implications of each choice for national security, economic prosperity, and regional stability. Since South Korea's strategic options are fraught with challenges and uncertainties. The nation must carefully navigate the Asian geopolitical landscape while safeguarding interests and pursuing its grand strategy. By adopting a balanced approach to the U.S. and China, and following prudent foreign policy, South Korea can maximize both security and economic growth. There is no simple solution to South Korea’s strategic dilemma.
