In recent years, the global landscape has become increasingly turbulent, with violence erupting across regions for varying reasons. However, these conflicts, while seemingly distinct, share a deeper, systemic cause: a crisis of credibility in global governance. The major powers that once upheld the international order appear either unable or unwilling to take decisive action. This power vacuum is creating opportunities for actors who seek to exploit instability. Without trust or cooperation, we are witnessing an acceleration of geopolitical uncertainty, characterized by heightened tensions in the Middle East, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific. As violence spreads, the once hopeful vision of a peaceful 21st century seems increasingly out of reach.
The retreat of democracy on a global scale is one of the most concerning trends of our time. According to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA[1]), over two-thirds of the world’s population now live in nations where democratic principles are eroding. Freedom House[2] reports that 38% of the world’s population resides in “not free” countries, a dramatic rise over recent years. This global democratic backslide has weakened international security, as authoritarian regimes are far more prone to violence and conflict than democratic governments. Research consistently shows that autocratic regimes use violence to maintain power, and the world is now experiencing the repercussions of this in regions such as Ukraine, Gaza, and the South Caucasus.
Historically, global conflicts often coincide in time, reinforcing each other’s impacts. In the early 1990s, the Gulf War unfolded alongside the Yugoslav Wars, Algeria’s civil war, and unrest in Nagorno-Karabakh, all echoing today’s situation, where regional conflicts are rapidly escalating. This convergence of violence today is exacerbated by a global power shift, as nations that once relied on democratic governance face challenges from resurgent authoritarianism.
The world order that seemed stable at the start of the 21st century has been fundamentally altered. The United States, long the global leader in maintaining peace and security, is increasingly overwhelmed, both internally divided and externally challenged. While the U.S. is attempting to reassert its leadership, its influence has waned, making space for challengers like Russia and China.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine signals its ambitions to rebuild its sphere of influence, reminiscent of its imperial past. Simultaneously, China’s economic rise has not led to the ideological convergence with the West that many had hoped for. Instead, China is positioning itself as a dominant force in the Indo-Pacific, directly challenging Western supremacy. Both countries are engaging in power politics that undermine the international order. Moreover, mid-level powers such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Ethiopia are now embroiled in regional hegemonic struggles, adding further complexity to an already fragile global situation.
International institutions, including the United Nations and the International Criminal Court, which were designed to mediate conflicts and maintain peace, are losing effectiveness. Geopolitical fractures have rendered these mechanisms increasingly powerless, as global support for multilateralism has eroded. The system is fragmenting, leaving the world more decentralized and more volatile. Western powers, particularly the G7, which once represented the lion’s share of global GDP, now account for only 40%, a significant drop from their 70% share in 1989. Economic and diplomatic influence is declining in parallel, making it harder for Western nations to exert pressure or enforce sanctions.
One striking example of this shift is the refusal of many developing nations to join the West in sanctioning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. The war has exposed growing opposition to Western dominance, particularly in the Global South, where Western support for Israel contrasts sharply with widespread sympathy for Palestinians. This divide will only deepen as conflicts in the Middle East escalate.
Europe, once confident in its ability to manage global instability, is now grappling with its limitations. Following the fall of the Berlin Wall, there was a widespread belief that Europe could shape a democratic and peaceful world order. However, many of the crises of the 1990s, such as the Yugoslav wars, were only resolved after years of conflict or outside intervention. Today, European unity is fraying, and its capacity to manage multiple crises simultaneously is in question.[3]
The war in Ukraine is reshaping Europe’s geopolitical strategy. Ukraine is no longer seen as a buffer state between Russia and the West but as a critical part of the European security architecture. The European Union (EU) has demonstrated its support for Ukraine by granting it candidate status, alongside Moldova, signalling the EU’s commitment to integrate these countries into its fold.[4] However, ensuring Ukraine’s survival and strength requires urgent and sustained military assistance from the EU, especially as the war shows no signs of ending soon.
Ukraine has evolved from a potential buffer state into an essential member of Europe’s security apparatus. The EU’s interest now lies in ensuring Ukraine emerges from the war as a strong, stable state, ideally with control over as much of its territory as possible. To achieve this, the EU must increase its military aid to Ukraine and commit to long-term support. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has, so far, not affected the West’s military aid to Ukraine, but a broader regional war could strain U.S. resources, which would, in turn, place more pressure on Europe to compensate for reduced American military assistance.
Moreover, Iran’s capacity to support Russia may be hampered by its engagement in the Middle East, offering a potential silver lining for Ukraine. Yet, the situation remains precarious. Belarus has fallen fully under Russia’s sway, becoming a de facto Russian vassal, and is currently outside the EU’s strategic focus. In contrast, the EU’s interests in the South Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan’s natural resources and its strategic location, have not yielded the desired stability. Azerbaijan’s actions in Nagorno-Karabakh went largely unnoticed amid the broader geopolitical turbulence, and the EU’s limited diplomatic influence in the region shows the need for a more robust strategy[5].
The deepening partnership between Russia and Iran is another critical development. As Russia struggles to maintain its military operations in Ukraine, it has turned to Iran for support, including drones and other weaponry. In return, Moscow is likely aiding Tehran in advancing its military capabilities. This partnership is not only a concern for Ukraine but also threatens to destabilize the Middle East further, where Iran may become emboldened to play a more aggressive role.
Russia’s reliance on Iran, China, and North Korea for military supplies, from ballistic missiles to drones, highlights the fragile state of its defence capabilities. Despite these alliances, Russia’s economic outlook remains bleak, with rising inflation and increased military spending further straining its already limited resources. If Russia continues to pour billions into its war efforts, it risks both economic collapse and a loss of domestic support.
While Ukraine’s allies remain supportive, there are signs of war fatigue, particularly as other global crises dominate headlines. However, allowing Russia to solidify its gains would be disastrous not only for Ukraine but for global security. This is not just a regional conflict; it is a clash between authoritarianism and democracy, with implications for the entire international order. Ukraine must continue to receive sufficient and timely military support. Freezing the conflict would only give Russia time to regroup and launch further offensives, not only in Ukraine but also potentially beyond its borders.
Ukraine’s eventual integration into NATO and the EU is critical to ensuring its long-term security. These memberships would provide Ukraine with the security guarantees it needs and serve as a deterrent to further Russian aggression. The international community must recognize that this is a pivotal moment in history, and decisive action is needed to prevent a return to the age of conquest and imperial ambition.
The global order, established after World War II, is crumbling. The institutions and norms that once provided a framework for peaceful international relations are increasingly ignored. Russia’s blatant disregard for international law, as seen in its invasion of Ukraine, is a stark reminder that the rules-based order is in jeopardy. The brutality seen in conflicts across the globe, from the battlefields of Ukraine to the violence in Gaza, reflects a world where might increasingly makes right, and where terrorists and autocrats operate without constraint.
Russia has not only undermined the global system but is actively working to paralyze the organizations that have historically maintained peace and stability, such as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). The international community is now facing the challenge of rebuilding a fractured world order—a process that will take decades.
As we navigate this era of uncertainty, it is clear that strategic thinking is more important than ever. The EU must recognize its vulnerabilities and take decisive steps to strengthen its military and diplomatic capacities. This includes rethinking its approach to neighbouring regions, deepening economic ties with partner countries, and bolstering its defence industry to prepare for future conflicts.
The world is at a crossroads. The future of global peace and stability depends on whether nations can cooperate to rebuild a rules-based order or whether they will allow the current trajectory of power politics and aggression to continue. The stakes are higher than ever, and the international community must act swiftly to prevent further violence, support Ukraine, and foster a new era of cooperation.
[1] International IDEA, “The Global State of Democracy 2023. The New Checks and Balances”. https://www.idea.int/publications/catalogue/global-state-democracy- 2023-new-checks-and-balances.
[2] Freedom House, “Freedom in the World 2023. Marking 50 Years in the Struggle for Democracy”. https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2023-03/FIW_World_2023_Dig- talPDF.pdf.
[3] W. Pickler, J. W., U.S. Army., “21st Century Warfare Requires 21st Century Deterrence”, per Concordiam. Available: https://perconcordiam.com/modern-deterrence/.
[4] Buras, P., Morina, E., “Catch-27: The contradictory thinking about enlargement in the EU”, European Council on Foreign Relations. https://ecfr.eu/publication/catch-27-the-contradictory-thinking-about-enlargement-in-the-eu/.
[5] Dumoulin, M., Gressel, G., “After Nagorno-Karabakh: How Europeans can strengthen Armenia’s resilience”, European Council on Foreign Relations. https://ecfr.eu/article/after-nagorno-karabakh-how-europeans-can-strengthen-armenias-resilience/.
